Good policy cannot alter weak steel market

In the past week, the domestic macroeconomic data have issued in the first quarter, GDP growth was at 7%; January to march year-on-year growth of 13.5%, in the name of national assets investment growth fell 0.4% in February from January to; Fell 18.4% year on year in the new site area, housing construction area, fell 0.8% in February from January to; The whole society power consumption fell 2.2% year on year in March, light electricity plunged 13%; Industrial output in March year-on-year growth of 5.6%, the actual than January ~ fell 1.2% in February; National railway goods originated in the first quarter of 870 million tons, about 9% year-on-year drop in the level of absolute number back to the same period in 2010…

All above data shows that the domestic economy “weak”.

Domestic hong kong-listed also with “weak” status. Due to a lack of strong support of downstream demand, while iron ore prices have pull up last week, but the spot price of steel is difficult to respond. Around the construction steel market, the wide divergence of the market, the domestic price continues to fall, as of April 17, the price is in 2515 yuan/ton, week dropped 19 yuan/ton. Hot rolled coil plate market shows a pattern of weak and strong north south, north supply relatively tight, early last week after prices fell back is not obvious; The southern market is relatively stable, prices in Shanghai after magnified, first week of domestic hot-rolled coil plate prices month-on-month were unchanged, the price is in 2511 yuan/ton; Medium thickness plate price a broad retreat, the biggest weekly decline of jinan, up to 80 yuan/ton, the domestic average price in 2563 yuan/ton, week dropped 19 yuan/ton; Cold rolled plate, east China, such as weak performance in most area of south China, changsha, wuhan market decline is opposite bigger, for an average of 3390 yuan/ton, the latest week fell 31 yuan/ton.

Incentives are brewing

In the face of the real economy is generally poor performance, the corresponding policy stimulus are brewing, come.

On April 19, the people’s bank of China since April 20, 2015 to cut all kinds of deposit financial institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate of 1%; On this basis, in order to further enhance the ability of financial institutions to support structure adjustment, increase of small micro enterprises, “three rural” and the support of major water conservancy project construction, since April 20 extra for rural credit cooperatives, village Banks and rural financial institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate 1% lower, and unified by the rural cooperative bank deposit reserve rate to the level of rural credit cooperatives; Reduce the extra for the agricultural development bank of China RMB deposit reserve rate of 2%; To conform to the requirements of the prudent management and “SAN nong” or small micro enterprise loan reaches a certain proportion of the state-owned Banks and joint-stock commercial Banks can perform a similar institutions low level of the legal deposit reserve rate of 0.5%.

In addition, before the government to speed up the railway investment and vice premier of the state council ma kai said be sure to complete the railway construction investment of 800 billion yuan of above 2015, the new production goals and tasks of more than 8000 kilometers, “much starker choices-and graver consequences-in” during railway investment or more than $3 trillion. In addition, article 10 of “water” is finally revealed, according to estimates, can boost GDP growth in 5.7 trillion yuan. In prophase of real estate industry policy, the government backstops economic intention is very clear.

At the same time, the acceleration of construction steel inventories decline is a highlight of the current hong kong-listed. According to industry organization statistics, as of April 17, the five varieties of steel 302000 tons to 302000 tons in total inventory, the decline of 2.1%, compared with the previous week decline increased. Hot-rolled coil, concrete, plate (plate, plate, cold rolled coils) inventory change is relatively small, construction steel stocks dropped significantly increased, week fell is four times the size of the previous week. According to construction steel inventory statistics, as of April 17, the main construction steel factory in inventory for a total of 4.2754 million tons 330300 tons less a week earlier, the rebar inventories to reduce 256000 tons, the wire stocks fell 73800 tons. This means that the late market to inventory pressure is not big.

Good difficult to save the “weak” market

Under the above positive, enter in late April, the domestic steel market can appear some positive changes? Domestic steel market prices can usher in a rally?

The author thinks that is very difficult, although drop may drive the futures market price granite and the spot price rise upward, but the impact of steel varieties may only construction steel and hot rolled plate, and the market price is difficult to continue to pull up; Other varieties of steel market prices weak shocks probability bigger, suggestion, you can purchase the dips iron ore production enterprises, but for the finished steel material is not intended to stock up. Specifically, is worth to pay close attention to the following factors:

First, the domestic steel production enthusiasm is higher. Due to the low cost of raw materials (especially the early low iron ore) has been put into production, positive changes in your domestic steel mills profit level, rebar, wire rod, cold rolled plate, and three main varieties profit space to improve, the varieties of hot rolled plate, medium plate losses are falling, the late spot market supply pressure remains.

Second, although the recent iron ore price shock rebound, but difficult to lasting. Atlas iron ore company in April to a moratorium on the production of three mines, more rumors or reduce 100 million tons of iron ore supply abroad in 2015, but the information port iron ore inventories last week a small increase, and blast furnace starts has dropped slightly last week, therefore, the late iron ore prices unilateral upward is difficult. At the same time, the weak market price of coke, scrap steel, billet, it is difficult to support steel prices upward.

Third, the downstream demand is not very ideal. Both real estate construction and industrial manufacturing, can release the strong purchasing demand, especially the plank market clinch a deal the pressure, the government introduced the palm economy increase infrastructure investment measures, can not be quickly converted to the actual demand, therefore cannot be powered for the rising steel prices.

Fourth, the steel mills ex-factory prices further down. Last week, the majority of producer prices for steel mills continue to cut the finished material, steel mills have raised individual varieties, such as medium plate factory price, but the order group difficult, traders and downstream buyers in the spot market bearish sentiment.

From this perspective, the spot price is difficult to a strong rebound in the short term, and is expected to steel market prices or diverge. Will not only appears between different varieties, the differentiation between different regions will also. Hot-rolled coil, for example, the north board price is on the high side, and the southern region price low, can balance between; In addition, the department of cold rolled and hot rolled plate price difference is still on the high side, cold rolled plate profit space is larger, price competition between steel plant resources or continue to heat up.