Iron ore will be a substantial downward fluctuation

In October, affected by the macro-economic downward pressure, steel demand is still relatively slow, the iron ore market oversupply situation did not change, price fluctuations are running situation. As the weather turns cold, late limit production measures factors during the APEC meeting, is on the decline in demand for iron ore, iron ore prices will show downward trend of fluctuations.

First, China’s iron ore price index rose slightly

In late October, China’s iron ore price index (CIOPI) was 283.54 points, up 1.30 points, rise to 0.46%, from down to up. Among them: domestic iron ore price index to 265.32 points, fell 4.50 points, a 1.67% decline. Imported iron ore price index to 291.78 points, up 3.92 points, rose to 1.36%, from fall to rise.

From whole month, October, China’s iron ore price index (CIOPI) average of 287.96 points, fell 6.90 points, a drop of 2.34%. Among them: domestic iron ore prices index averages of 266.79 points, fell 6.56 points, a 2.40% decline. Imports of iron ore price index averages of 297.53 points, fell 7.07 points, a drop of 2.32%.

Second, the domestic iron ore concentrate prices decline narrowed, import ore prices recovered slightly

In late October, domestic iron ore concentrate price of 682.70 yuan/ton, fell to 11.61 yuan/ton, a 1.67% decline, the decline was narrowed 1.76% last month; $78.81 / ton cif imports ore fines, rose by $1.06 / ton, gain is 1.36%; Imported ore spot trade tax price of 599.58 yuan/ton, rose by 1.81 yuan/ton, rise of 0.30%.

From the whole month, domestic iron ore concentrate the average price of 686.49 yuan/ton, fell to 16.88 yuan/ton, a 2.40% decline, the decline narrowed 0.76% last month. Among them: on October 8th to October 9, from 691.18 yuan/ton rose slightly to 691.57 yuan/ton; On October 9 to October 14, a slight drop in from 691.75 yuan/ton to 687.59 yuan/ton; On October 14 to October 21, a slight drop in from 687.59 yuan/ton to 683.58 yuan/ton; On October 21, to the end of the month, from 683.58 yuan/ton falling slightly to 682.70 yuan/ton.

Imported ore powder average price is $80.36 / ton, fell $1.91 / ton, a 2.32% decline, price fluctuation trend in whole month. Among them: on October 8th to October 14 in rose slightly interval, from $78.53 / ton rose to $82.64 / ton; On October 14 to October 17 in a modest decline range, fell to $80.25 from $82.64 / ton/tons; At the end of October 17 to in a band.

Third, the late iron ore price action analysis

After the National Day holiday, the steel price is slightly better, but weak domestic steel market demand is still not change, the trend of iron and steel production is on the decline. At the same time, the high iron ore port stocks and site shutdown in north China during the APEC meeting in November, the measure such as steel mills to leak, the contradiction between supply and demand of iron ore, iron ore prices will be a substantial downward fluctuation in later.

1, the iron and steel production, iron ore demand situation is relatively weak

In late October, iron and steel association CSPI domestic steel composite price index is 86.40, from rose 0.05 points, or 0.06%. Although steel prices rebound slightly, but not enough to pull the iron ore price rise. Key statistics ten-day reports according to the iron and steel association statistics, October crude steel output of 1.6881 million tons of iron and steel enterprise, is to reduce 16000 tons last month, a 0.9% drop. As the weather turns cold, the market gradually into the consumption off-season, plus the APEC meeting in north China during shutdown, restricting output measures, the late iron ore demand the situation is more difficult to improve.

2, high iron ore inventories, oversupply situation did not change

In late October, China imported 107.18 million tons of iron ore port stocks, fell 3.51 million tons, the decline of 3.17%, year-on-year increase of 26.82 million tons, the growth of 33.37%, for nine consecutive months more than 100 million tons; 1 – September, domestic iron ore (ore) production increased by 75.86 million tons, up 7.2% from a year earlier. Iron ore imports of 699 million tons, year-on-year increase of 98.84 million tons, up 16.5% from a year earlier. Compared with the national production of cast iron only increased by 2.05 million tons, compared to the growth of just 0.4%. Iron ore supply and demand contradictions are still outstanding, the late iron ore market oversupply situation more obvious.