Starting from the middle of January, the domestic steel mills in blast furnace overhaul and stewing furnace has spread the news. Near the Spring Festival, disguised their production and production phenomenon not only appear in the steel industry, many coal enterprises also start off early, a long vacation. In fact, the coal and steel enterprise how to arrange the lunar New Year holiday, to some extent, can reflect the market supply and demand. Earlier this year, according to the holiday coal and steel industrial chain management situation is still grim.
Coal miners: holiday comes earlier this year
“We have a holiday, coal miners are home for the New Year, such a long holiday for workers by surprise.” Bijie prefecture of guizhou coal mine workers xiao yu told reporters.
Xiao yu from hubei wuhan, over the years has been open for coal mine dump truck, before is work in yulin area of coal mine, in early 2014 came to guizhou bijie coal mine. Xiao yu said, before the old colleague said a lot of coal mines in the yulin area is shutdown closed early.
It is understood that in the past coal in short supply, coal mining workers have a holiday is to dwell, and often to year to dwell. In many parts of the coal mine at the end of January this year began to have a holiday, the lunar New Year holiday sooner than ever before, longer holidays.
Everbright futures analyst zhang laughed gold that coal mining enterprises to the holiday in advance and the link bohai sea area port stocks have risen sharply recently, plant almost stop purchasing. Large coal enterprises can reduce the supply of the holiday, to a certain extent, can alleviate the pressure of the sales.
Data show that by the end of January, shanxi coal inventory in more than 38 million tons a day, qinhuangdao port stocks also breakthrough in early February 8 million tons, high inventory pressure gradually revealed. Downstream of the six major aspects of power plant, to the end of January, power plant inventories remain at 13 million tons, low capacity to further affect the enthusiasm of the power plant of coal procurement.
Steel trading business: basic in the closed state
“Just the previous hoarding sell 20000 tons of steel billet, the break-even micro. At present many steel mills has been shut down, after the start dates are also expected delays, tangshan region billet inventory is still growing at a rate of 12000 tons per day.” Tangshan a steel trade, told reporters.
At the same time, the reporter in some steel mills, the survey found many companies this year’s holiday arrangement and utilization are very different from previous years. “Haven’t to the twelfth lunar month, some steel mills began to overhaul and stewing furnace, workers are shutdown of waiting for the New Year.” A steel mills in tangshan people reluctantly said.
At a people in the steel mills in the northwest, said last year, under the influence of macro economy and the international crude oil prices, domestic commodity prices fall to some extent. Among them, the steel prices fall is larger, and makes a new low in recent years. The Spring Festival approaching, a face of steel prices, traders also coasting, steel demand is very weak.
“We only purchase from this week, no shipment, no one to pick up the goods, the current basic in the closed state.” Guangdong foshan, a steel trader told reporters.
According to cisa’s statistical data, the recent crude steel production of iron and steel enterprise is still in the high and supply is adequate. In sales, the northern steel mill shipments are difficult, light volume, parts and even has a price no city.
It is important to note that due to the inland steel mills in ore accounted for in the material ratio is high, as ore prices are lower, inland large steel mills have been hit. My steel net, according to the monitoring data in June 2014, is the inland steel mills have started to repair, and maintenance of blast furnace and production plan. Since this year, because the inventory is still high, section steel mill scale.
Dilemma: some steel mills production by turning losses
For iron and steel enterprises, a New Year has failed to live up to “start”. Since this year, some steel mills production have been’s profits have disappointed, and starting from the middle of January, losses in expanding.
“From the point of recently published data, better than the average profit margin in 2014 steel mills in 2013, mainly because the raw material prices decline.” Yongan futures steel, researchers said Yu Xinghai points area, southern region outside the extensive use of steel mills, in the process of this round of iron ore prices will benefit most. The whole, the southern steel last year’s profit is better than the north. In addition, the plank of demand relatively better Yu Changcai, plank production enterprise profits will be better.
Raw material prices fell sharply in 2014, with some steel mills production still can obtain ideal profits. In order to guarantee the market share, large steel companies, especially state-owned steel mills are still full production. But the renewed downstream consumption, cause a large steel sales.
It is understood that since January this year, state-owned steel mills production losses began to expand, private steel mills production 1 ton steel also loss of 50 yuan. “The winter is a traditional steel consumption off-season, steel trade merchants had winter will is not strong. And near the Spring Festival, businesses are eager to drained, shipment will is stronger, by cutting prices to stimulate shipment. So this year, steel prices failed to appear ‘flying start’.” The foshan steel trade, traders said.
For the plight of the steel industry, the steel mills personage thinks, one side is to be being washed out backward production capacity, new projects are built on one side, the more capacity decrease, the more it is steel prices remain low and affects the root cause of the steel mills profit. He predicts that steel production capacity, on the day of a bottom is steel back to life. A large number of steel mills will inevitably fall in “before the dawn”, but if you can survive, will be “left for the king”.
Thinking: troubles break to have a “killer app”
Reporter discovery, in the domestic steel prices continued to fall under the background of, steel mills operating situation appear larger differentiation last year, the earnings good enterprise have their own advantage. First, the steel mills products to meet market demand, product special steel in proportion is larger, the price fluctuation is not big. Secondly, the enterprise marketing rhythm grasp better, especially in the coastal areas of steel companies use the relatively low price of imported ore, and the product and raw material inventory control in the low post. Finally, this part of the enterprise reasonable use futures hedging tools, locking the raw material purchase price and sale price of products, effectively avoid the risk of price fluctuations.
It is understood that the steel prices in July last year after below 3100 yuan/ton, a steel mill in hebei late believe that steel prices will continue to fall, decided to hedging in futures markets. In early August 2014, with 3080 yuan/ton for the steel mills on the rebar futures 1501 contracts sold 20000 tons, open a month after the successful shipment and futures contract positions, unwinding the price is 2843 yuan/ton. During this period, the spot tertiary rebar prices fell 250 yuan/ton, but steel mills in the operation of the futures market is offset by the negative impact of the spot prices fell.